December 5, 2011
Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim predicts a housing recovery buoyed by improving jobs numbers and the fact that prices for non-distressed homes have stabilized without government support.
"In the absence of a government homebuyer incentives, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year," Kim said. "This is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the street. This stability on the part of non-distressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices."
In mid-2010, the federal homebuyer tax credit expired, leaving the housing market without training wheels for the first time since the 2008 economic meltdown. Yet, prices in some housing markets remained stable on the back end.
Barclays said recent economic data point to some potential improvement in the sector including higher job creation in November, housing starts and improved homebuyer traffic.
"Thus, the key to timing housing’s recovery depends primarily on when these first-time buyers decide it is safe to buy a house," Kim concluded
Source: Realtor Magazine